BTC-Nasdaq Correlation Response to Today’s CPI Data

The odds investors placed on a Fed rate cut in September soared to nearly 70%. This was after Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole were seen as dovish. Today’s risk markets were reshaped by this change.

Powell mentioned that adjusting policy could be necessary. This, alongside CPI numbers staying over 2% and a big rise in monthly PPI figures, set the backdrop. The U.S. dollar fell by about 1% against major currencies right after, usually signaling more BTC coming in. This is a key part of today’s BTC-Nasdaq correlation story.

I observed order flows and liquidity shifting in real-time. CoinMarketCap highlighted a surge in BTC volumes as tech stocks and growth names in the Nasdaq adjusted to the possibility of looser policy. Financial markets quickly priced in a higher chance of easing. This improved the short-term link between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq.

This article will cover the basics of CPI, look at how BTC and Nasdaq have moved together over time, present current correlation figures and charts, examine volatility trends, and outline both immediate and long-range forecasts. You’ll get my direct observations and a technical breakdown. This way, you can also analyze the link using familiar tools and data.

Key Takeaways

• Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole pivot materially shifted rate expectations and helped drive today’s risk-on repricing.
• CPI remaining above 2% and a sharp monthly PPI increase created mixed macro signals for assets.
• The U.S. dollar’s ~1% drop coincided with higher BTC flows, tightening short-term btc nasdaq correlation.
• Market-implied odds for a September cut rose, which pushed both BTC and Nasdaq directionally higher in the immediate window.
• I will follow with data-backed charts, statistical measures, and tools so readers can test the BTC-Nasdaq correlation themselves.

Understanding CPI and Its Impact on Financial Markets

I keep a close eye on CPI reports as they influence expectations about interest rates and investments. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures changes in what families pay for goods and services. It helps traders and portfolio managers figure out if price changes are widespread or focused in areas like food and energy.

What is CPI?

The CPI takes a monthly look at inflation from the consumer’s perspective. It includes a wide range of items, but core CPI excludes food and energy. This can show hidden inflation trends. If CPI is over 2% for a while, people think differently about what the Federal Reserve might do next.

Rises in producer prices, tracked by the Producer Price Index or PPI, can hint at future consumer price increases. A sudden PPI spike often means higher CPI is coming. This is crucial when thinking about how CPI affects the stock market, especially the Nasdaq, and Bitcoin.

Importance of CPI in Economic Analysis

I look at CPI alongside other measures like PCE and PPI to get the full picture. The Federal Reserve prefers PCE, but CPI data comes out faster and markets see it more clearly. Comments from Jerome Powell, especially at events like Jackson Hole, are weighed against these indices, influencing market guesses on Fed actions.

Understanding if inflation changes are here to stay or just a one-time thing is key for investors. Sudden inflation from tariffs is different from steady inflation caused by rising wages. This difference is why investors pay close attention to how changes in CPI relate to the stock and crypto markets.

My quick guide for real-time decision making includes comparing headline vs core CPI, watching housing and wage trends within CPI, and looking at PPI and core PCE predictions. This approach helps me predict Bitcoin prices after CPI reports and how people might invest in riskier assets.

Current BTC and Nasdaq Correlation Overview

I keep a close watch on Bitcoin and big tech stocks correlation. The btc nasdaq correlation changes frequently. Short bursts of movement usually come after rate changes or liquidity surprises. It’s my goal to understand this pattern without jumping to conclusions.

In March 2020, a liquidity shock caused a lot of selling. Bitcoin and the Nasdaq dropped as traders moved away from risk. But when the Federal Reserve acted and liquidity came back, both bounced back. This shows how quickly their relationship can change from negative to positive.

Correlation between them isn’t set in stone. I look at 30-, 90-, and 180-day trends to see shifts. In quiet times, the correlation usually gets weaker. But it rises during big economic shocks. This means you can’t just take a quick look and understand the whole picture.

I use Pearson correlations for fresh analysis. It involves Bitcoin and Nasdaq daily returns over 30/90/180 days. These rolling reviews help spot changes during big events. Market size also plays a role. Smaller markets can make movements seem bigger.

Bitcoin was worth $115,106.02 on CoinMarketCap as of Aug 24, 2025, with a recent 90-day gain of about +5.06%. A drop in trading volume by 37.6% shows the market is quieter than normal. This situation could make short-term changes between BTC and Nasdaq seem bigger than they are.

After Chair Powell hinted at a more cautious approach, both markets seemed to go up. This made their recent link stronger. Yet, I see these changes as dependent on the situation and not lasting long.

Here’s what I’ve learned: watch trends over time and adjust for market size. Doing this makes it easier to tell apart brief movements from lasting connections. For those keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s stock market ties, this approach helps avoid misinterpretations of short-term trends.

Today’s CPI Data Release and Market Reaction

I watched the July CPI numbers come in and saw the market change quickly. The overall CPI was as expected, at +0.2% for the month. But the core CPI went up by +0.3%, which seemed mild.

Then the PPI data came with a surprise. Both headline and core PPI rose by +0.9% in a month, against the expected +0.3%. This increase showed higher costs in portfolio management and linked stock prices upstream. Analysts at Pantheon adjusted their core PCE estimate for July to about +0.26% monthly, moving the annual core PCE close to 2.9%. The Fed pays close attention to this number.

The CPI stayed steady, but the PPI was hotter than expected. Plus, comments from the Fed’s chair moved markets quickly. The dollar fell nearly 1% against key currencies right after Powell’s speech. The yen, along with the Australian and New Zealand dollars, weakened noticeably.

Key market responses

• BTC followed its typical pattern: a weaker dollar and hopes for lower interest rates often boost crypto. Studies from Coincu and insights from Nic Carter and Alex Krüger show that softer policies attract money into crypto. This trend was clear in BTC’s performance after the CPI announcement.
• The Nasdaq jumped as investors expected more lenient policies. The CPI’s effect on the Nasdaq and BTC was evident as both tech and crypto markets surged.
• However, a warning on liquidity came from CoinMarketCap. They reported a 37.6% decrease in BTC’s 24-hour volume. This drop suggests that BTC’s price changes after the CPI announcement might seem more dramatic due to less market depth.

Here’s something for traders to think about: a headline that seems okay might hide increasing costs in producer prices and services. When the Fed pays attention to the PCE, market shifts can happen based on small details, not just big news. This attention to detail is why the effects of the CPI on the Nasdaq and BTC were so mixed today.

I kept my trades small and closely observed the order books. The way BTC moved after the CPI news and the Nasdaq’s early rally showed me something important. What matters most are policy expectations, how liquid the market is, and the direction of cash flows, not just one number.

Graphical Representation of BTC and Nasdaq Correlation

I looked at the charts after today’s CPI came out. This was to show you how the connection between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq changes. A quick look can make it simpler to understand the link and spot short-term changes from big events.

The first chart shows daily changes for both BTC and the Nasdaq. I added lines that show the relationship over 30 and 90 days. It also marks today’s CPI announcement and recent talks by Jerome Powell.

For making your own charts, use TradingView for index data and CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko for BTC data. Using Python and pandas helps to easily figure out the correlations and mark important events.

Correlation Graph Post-CPI

• First, plot daily changes for each to focus on fluctuation.
• Add 30- and 90-day correlations to see short- and mid-term trends.
• Include BTC volume to understand impact; CoinMarketCap shows important 24-hour changes.
• Mark when CPI was released and Powell’s talks to notice immediate effects.

Historical Correlation Trends

• Create a two-year timeline to show changing correlations: positive in easy Fed periods or risk-on times; and separate during specific crypto events.
• Point out March 2020, key speeches, and surprising CPI/PCE data as times of notable changes.
• Use heatmaps or stacked charts to see when correlations were mostly positive or negative.

To analyze btc and nasdaq correlation using code, use pandas for correlations and matplotlib to draw. Add vertical lines for events with axvline. Checking btc and nasdaq correlation today after cpi? Look at the time right after the release to compare 30- and 90-day patterns. This view helps find real trends in the data.

Statistical Analysis of BTC and Nasdaq Performance

I go over the latest numbers and share key metrics that explain the market’s reaction to the CPI report. My goal is to make sense of daily returns, risk figures, and how markets move together. I keep the math simple.

Recent Performance Metrics

I analyze daily returns to get the average return and risk-adjusted ratios for the last 30, 90, and 180 days for Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC rose about 5.06% over 90 days. I compare this with the Nasdaq 90-day return. This shows if crypto beat stocks after adjusting for risk.

Here’s a quick comparison. It covers total return, daily average return, yearly return, yearly risk, and a basic risk-reward ratio (mean daily return over daily risk, scaled up for a year).

Volatility Analysis

I calculate yearly risk from daily returns. Bitcoin’s risk is much higher than the Nasdaq’s. This increases how much they move together, especially over short periods.

Adjusted risk for volume is also key. A big drop in BTC trade volume (-37.6%) can spike risk. Smaller trades have a bigger price impact. This makes the measured connection between markets jump.

How Bitcoin and Nasdaq move together varies. Bitcoin follows the Nasdaq more in good times. But with specific crypto events, Bitcoin often goes its own way. I see this when looking at good versus bad days in the last 30 and 90 days.

Changing correlation numbers for 30, 90, and 180 days often follow big news, like Fed talks or CPI updates. The table shows some examples. I update these figures often to keep them relevant, as big news can change both risk and correlations.

While useful, BTC Nasdaq performance stats have their limits. We must keep updating our analysis of BTC Nasqad’s volatility and how they move together. This is crucial after comments from Powell or unexpected CPI reports shift what the market expects.

Predictions for BTC and Nasdaq Moving Forward

I watch market reactions like an engineer watching stress tests: every small signal counts. After the CPI report today, traders and long-term holders face major decisions. I’m offering a brief on the risks and what might happen, without claiming to be 100% sure.

Short-term market changes tend to follow what the central bank says and new data. Jerome Powell’s recent dovish hints and the market’s expectation of a September rate cut boosts hope for risky investments. This should increase Nasdaq’s value and attract more money to cryptocurrency. However, unexpected strong PCE or ongoing services inflation could quickly change investor mood.

Liquidity is key. Because Bitcoin’s trading volume is low, prices could swing wildly, even if the general outlook is positive. This means those making predictions for btc and nasdaq need to be ready for surprises and adjust their plans fast.

Looking ahead, how tech stocks and crypto move together will rely on broader monetary policies. Should the Fed start lowering rates, causing real interest rates to drop, both markets could see benefits. This increases the likelihood of them moving in sync.

Crypto has its unique drivers too. Actions by the SEC, changes in how Coinbase handles money, or big investments in Grayscale products might make crypto and Nasdaq move differently at times. These factors show the relationship between btc and nasdaq won’t always be straightforward.

In combining these factors, I see a likely increase in how closely crypto and tech stocks move together in the coming months, especially through the next big economic announcements and the September FOMC meeting. However, because Bitcoin can be very volatile and regulatory changes are unpredictable, we might see some unexpected turns. This view is based on past trends I’ve noticed following CPI reports.

Tools for Analyzing BTC and Nasdaq Correlation

I keep a compact toolkit for analysis. It starts with gathering data and progresses to calculating rolling correlations. Adding volume and volatility helps clarify patterns, especially when CPI or Fed announcements come out.

Online Analysis Tools

TradingView is my first choice for quick comparisons. It lets me plot Nasdaq and BTC side by side. I add overlays for correlations over various days and mark key events like CPI announcements.

CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko offer detailed snapshots of BTC. This includes price, market cap, and trading volume. These figures help double-check data accuracy before diving deeper.

For repeatable tasks, Google Sheets or Excel is perfect. They help me quickly calculate correlation coefficients using built-in functions.

For more advanced analysis, I use Python. It provides tools for handling data, performing stats, and creating graphs. This combination is reliable for producing in-depth correlation and volatility analysis.

Financial Platforms for Tracking

Bloomberg and Refinitiv are my top choices at the professional level. They offer detailed data on macro trends and market movements. These platforms are crucial for analyzing intermarket relations and understanding Fed policies.

For more casual tracking, I visit Yahoo Finance and the Nasdaq’s own website. They give easy access to historical market performance.

I keep up with expert feeds like Newsquawk and Pantheon Macroeconomics. They provide insights into CPI data and government policies. Combining this knowledge with hard data is vital.

One key tip: always combine correlation analysis with volume and implied volatility data. I look at metrics like the VIX for equities and BTC implied volatilities on Deribit. These figures reveal risks that prices don’t show.

I use various tools and platforms to cross-verify findings in my analysis. This practice helps minimize bias and enhances analysis accuracy during stressful market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions about BTC and Nasdaq Correlation

I watch the markets every day and readers often ask me the same questions. I’ll answer the most common ones simply and clearly. Plus, I’ll share easy checks you can do on your own.

How are BTC and Nasdaq Correlated?

Correlation shows how returns of two markets move together. For example, BTC and Nasdaq often move up together during times traders seek growth assets. This happens in risk-on episodes and when there’s monetary easing.

On certain days, their correlation can spike. This happens during major events, like speeches by the Federal Reserve Chairman or unexpected economic reports. Flows of money moving in or out of both markets can cause this sudden jump.

To understand this better, you can look at the daily returns correlation over 30 to 90 days. Watching how it changes can help you see if movements are just random or if they follow a bigger trend.

What Factors Influence This Correlation?

Expectations around monetary policy greatly affect their link. For instance, when policies are relaxed, both BTC and Nasdaq tend to go up. Tighter policies have the opposite effect.

Trade volumes play a big role too. Low crypto trade volumes can exaggerate price changes. This can make it seem like cryptocurrencies and stocks move more closely than they actually do.

Economic reports and geopolitics can also change how these two markets move together. Inflation forecasts and investor mood can shift quickly, affecting their correlation.

But sometimes, they move independently due to specific events. Things like new regulations, changes in crypto custody, or on-chain activity can drive BTC away from Nasdaq trends.

How markets are structured can also cause them to move together or apart. For example, options expiries or futures contracts can temporarily align their movements.

I regularly check how their correlations change over time, compare trading volumes, and keep an eye on market volatility. Watching what central banks say helps too. This gives you a good view of what affects the BTC-Nasdaq correlation.

Evidence Supporting BTC-Nasdaq Correlation Theory

I watch markets from both my desk and trade terminal. Over time, it became clear that stories alone don’t fully convince people. You must show them price trends, trade volumes, and the impact of policy changes. This part collects proof across different times and combines it with expert views. This helps you understand how strong the BTC-Nasdaq link really is.

This part gives case studies that show patterns where risk assets, like stocks, move together during changes in liquidity or policy. Each story is short and focuses on price changes that are linked to big economic triggers. To get a complete picture, look at these examples alongside changing correlation numbers.

March 2020 drawdown. A global sell-off caused a liquidity crunch that affected Bitcoin and the Nasdaq simultaneously. Both plunged but then recovered as central banks and government support helped boost investor confidence. This is a key piece of evidence that those supporting the BTC-Nasdaq correlation often point to.

Fed easing cycles. Historically, when the Fed reduced interest rates and increased money supply, investors moved to riskier investments. They bought more tech stocks and cryptocurrencies during these times. These periods provide clear examples of Bitcoin and Nasdaq moving together.

Jackson Hole 2025 reaction. The Federal Reserve Chair’s encouraging speech led to a weaker dollar and a spike in investment risk-taking. This recent event clearly showed policies affecting both Bitcoin and Nasdaq stocks quickly.

Here, I’ve put together a summary table for quick comparisons of the above events. It matches each event with its market response and the main reason linking the assets together.

Let’s now look at what experts have to say, to understand why these case studies are important. I compare research and market notes with actual price actions. This avoids relying too much on just one point of view.

Coincu and the Kobeissi Letter discuss how the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts seems to draw investors to cryptocurrencies. These articles offer insights into how expected policy changes can move money into digital currencies.

Pantheon Macroeconomics and ING add depth to the conversation. They say that tariffs can cause one-off price hikes instead of ongoing inflation. This insight explains how central bank policies on interest rates can modify how risk assets relate to each other.

Before Powell’s speech, both Newsquawk’s real-time market research and money-market pricing showed high expectations for rate cuts in September. This widespread agreement resulted in investment moves that benefited both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin. It strengthens the narrative connecting the two.

To combine evidence, I look at price changes, trade volumes, and official policies. Graphs of changing correlations and sudden jumps in market activity support statements from experts. Using all these sources is the best way to judge the BTC-Nasdaq relationship without bias.

Sources for Further Research and Data

I keep a short, practical list for looking into market trends. I start with the big players: the Federal Reserve for their announcements and minutes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics for CPI and PPI updates, and official FOMC meetings. I mix these with real-time market news to make informed decisions.

For up-to-the-minute prices and values, I turn to CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko for cryptocurrencies, and TradingView for stock charts. For a wider view, I read Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Financial Times. Newsquawk is great for quick market timelines and insight. I also keep an eye on specific crypto analysis from Coincu and the Kobeissi Letter, following how Federal policies influence crypto.

Then, I dive into academics to sharpen my understanding. Journals like the Journal of Financial Economics and Monetary Economics offer deep dives into how different assets interact. NBER working papers and studies from SSRN and arXiv give insight into policy impacts and cryptocurrency trends.

My strategy is simple: mix key economic sources with expert market insights. This involves pairing information from the Fed and BLS with updates from TradingView and CoinMarketCap. Adding color from sources like Pantheon and various crypto newsletters helps me. It all supports a structured and repeatable approach to market analysis.

Checking facts about market trends is crucial. For instance, I found an update mentioning a significant chance of a rate cut in September and general market moves in an article here: live market update. It was handy for quick cross-reference.

To wrap it up, having a go-to list of sources is key. Use academic publications for theories, Bloomberg/Reuters for the big picture, CoinMarketCap/CoinGecko for crypto, and Newsquawk or Pantheon for breaking news. This mix helps me stay objective and quick in my research.

Conclusion: Implications of Today’s CPI Data

I looked at the numbers and market changes today. It’s clear that Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, softer CPI numbers, and mixed PPI signals made the markets lean towards expecting a looser policy. The dollar fell by nearly 1%, risk assets went up, and we saw a connection between BTC and Nasdaq today. This happened after the CPI data came out, boosting the likelihood of rate cuts.

Here’s what we found: Bitcoin saw a 90-day increase of about +5.06%, and a sharp drop in 24-hour volume (around -37.6%). Meanwhile, the surprise rise in PPI last month makes the situation more complex. While some inflation aspects seem temporary, core PCE predictions around +0.26% M/M make the Federal Reserve’s decisions uncertain. These data points are key to understanding the BTC-Nasdaq connection.

For those investing in BTC and Nasdaq, pay attention to the upcoming PCE and employment data, Fed minutes, and the September FOMC meeting. Keep an eye on rolling correlation windows, volume, and volatility. Also, stay updated on news specific to crypto regulation. When trading this correlation, prepare for the high volatility in BTC. Be ready for sudden changes that are unique to the crypto world.

To wrap it up: Powell’s recent comments changed the market today, but be prepared for quick shifts. I’m closely watching the Fed’s moves in September, keeping my charts up to date, and monitoring volume and PCE data. Start with the charts and tools we’ve discussed. Remember, correlations can change—they’re not always fixed. This practical mindset helps me turn correlation insights between BTC and Nasdaq into action.